U. S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the G7 summit, in Evian, France, on June 16, 2026. —Evelyn Hockstein—Getty Images

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Thursday warned that the United States is trying to sow discord as he urged Albertans not to vote for a separation referendum.

“The stakes are high. This referendum, it comes at the worst possible time. The world has become more dangerous and divided,” Carney said at a rally in Calgary, Alberta, ahead of Monday’s vote, which will see residents decide whether the oil-rich province should hold a referendum on Alberta’s independence from Canada. “There are some outside our borders who are working to break us, so they can own us.”

While Carney didn’t explicitly name the U. S., the remarks echoed his previously warnings of the dangers of American dominance. Carney's statement came after U. S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday revisited his ambitions to annex Canada, telling the crowd at a rally in Arizona that the country will “end up being the 51st state, because it's the only way it works.” Trump again accused Canada of treating the U. S. “very badly” and vowed he won’t allow it to happen anymore as “it’s a whole different ballgame now [that] Trump is in town.”

The U. S. and Canada remain in a contentious trade standoff after negotiations collapsed in August. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs came into effect last month, matching the economic pressure imposed by the U. S. Carney has encouraged Canadians to band together and take back their economic power by choosing Canadian products over those made in the U. S. The trade tussle comes after months of Trump repeatedly threatening Canada’s sovereignty—a move that has stoked tensions between the U. S. Administration and Canadian officials.

In light of Trump’s most recent remarks about possible annexation, Canada’s former deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said it would be dangerous to deepen or maintain close economic ties with a neighbor that “openly says they want to take you over.”

Carney admitted last month in an interview with the New York Times that he had studied the risk of a U. S. invasion given Trump’s charged rhetoric. “I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” he said. “That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to [prepare].”

Trump’s references to Canada one day being America’s “51st state” come at a time when Carney is desperately trying to promote his “Canada Strong” strategy—one that he hopes will very much include Alberta. Polling conducted by 338Canada suggests that as of Oct. 11, 75% of Albertans would vote to remain part of Canada. Carney’s resolve is being tested on more than one front, following separatist Parti Québécois’ victory earlier this month. Quebec’s incoming Premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has stated his intention to hold a referendum on Quebec independence. And while he has vowed not to hold such a vote while Trump is in office, the looming presence of a growing separatist movement undoubtedly complicates matters for Carney at a time when he is striving to show that Canada is strong enough to prosper without a reliance on the American market.

However, experts tell TIME the pressure and rhetoric from the U. S. could actually work in Carney’s favor. “The effect of Trump's comments has been unifying,” says Lori Turnbull, a professor in political science at Dalhousie University. Despite discussions of independence in Alberta and Quebec, she says “there isn't widespread panic that the country is coming apart.”

In fact, research conducted by the Environics Institute for Survey Research in 2025 found that “in almost every province, the proportion of residents who are very attached to Canada is greater than the proportion who are very attached to their province.”

With the U. S. and Canada locked in a trade stalemate, and with annexation threats once again dominating the conversation, here’s a look at the reality Carney is facing as he deals with both domestic and international pressures.

Trump's remarks complicate Carney’s unity efforts

Trump’s accusations that Canada has taken advantage of the U. S. on matters of trade and security date back to before Carney became Prime Minister in March 2025, meaning the friction we’re currently seeing goes deeper than a simple clash between Trump and Carney.

When Justin Trudeau was in office, he also had a contentious relationship with Trump, who would often refer to him as the "governor" of the "great state of Canada."

As for the potential of a physical threat facing Canada, Patrick Leblond, a professor of public and international affairs at the University of Ottawa, says that Carney “put it best when he talked about tail risk” in his interview with the Times. “It’s the financial term for something that has potentially high impact but low probability,” Leblond explains.

Trump’s economic actions and threats have proven to be far more damaging than his annexation remarks.

“He has weaponized market access to the U. S.,” says Leblond. “What we can expect is more economic pressure from the White House in the coming months. Trump and his acolytes certainly see Canada as a small, weak country that the United States should try to squeeze further.”

The U. S. is Canada’s largest trading partner, with almost $2.6 billion worth of goods and services passing across the border daily in 2024. According to the Office for the U. S. Trade Representative, trade between the two was down 4.6% from 2024 to 2025, but still saw $872.3 billion worth of goods and services cross the border.

Still, annexation threats have raised concerns that they could damage Carney’s high-stakes domestic campaign to unite the country under a “Canada Strong” strategy.

“Our sovereignty is under threat. America’s unjustified trade war is an attempt to weaken us,” reads an online notice from Carney’s Liberal Party. As such, the government has vowed to enhance security against foreign adversaries, protect “Canadian values,” and improve the country’s infrastructure as part of the vision.

On the home front, the success of a separatist party in Quebec is another threat to the unity that Carney is currently striving for. However, despite the Parti Québécois winning (although they fell five seats short of securing a majority government), the desire for separatism among Quebec residents remains low—with only 31% in favor of sovereignty for the province, according to data from 338 Canada released on Oct. 11.

“If Quebec is on a path to separation or not, it would never be because they were looking for further alignment with the United States,” argues Turnbull.

“Quebec has a variety of cultural protections in the Canadian federation. They would have none of that in the United States.”

The more immediate risk for Carney lies in Alberta, with residents preparing to vote on whether the province should hold a referendum to separate from Canada, following growing support for independence that saw more than 279,000 signatures gathered by July for such a vote. According to polling by Canadian analytical body The Writ, 70% of Albertans are in favor of remaining part of Canada, as of Oct. 9.

Carney, who was raised in Edmonton, Alberta, on Thursday framed the referendum as an opportunity for voters to “stand up for Alberta, the heart of Canada” and “recognize that we're all responsi...

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